MoxVib

Last week we took a first look at the NCAA tournament bubble based on the loss column, RPI and strength of schedule, three elements that are pivotal to any team’s Selection Sunday portfolio.

Though there’s plenty of time left in the regular season, it’s getting late early for a few traditional power houses. And if these four programs don’t reverse their thus-far-foul fortunes soon, they likely won’t be bracket bound come March.

(All records and RPI data as of Jan. 27)

Syracuse Orange

Record: 14-7 | RPI: 68 | SOS: 102

The Orange have struggled to score at times this season, particularly from beyond the three-point arc. Combine that with a freshman point guard in Kaleb Joseph, who turning over the ball on 28.8 percent of his possessions, and it’s not too hard to see how Syracuse has seven losses and no wins against teams in the RPI top 50. That record could spiral south quickly too, with upcoming games against Louisville, Notre Dame, Virginia and a pair against Duke. The Orange already missed on an opportunity for a resume-building win Monday night, falling to UNC 93-83. The good news is they’ll have an opportunity to right the ship, and big wins against those big boys can counteract the missteps so far. But they’ll have to do it without impressive freshman Chris McCullough, who tore his ACL earlier this month.

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Projections: Ken Pomeroy projects losses against all of the ACC’s top teams, plus road losses to Pittsburgh, Boston College and North Carolina State. That would give Syracuse 15 losses, and no team has earned an at-large bid with that number in the loss column. BPI, ESPN’s proprietary college hoops power metric, is slightly more kind, giving the Orange a W against the Panthers and Eagles after adjusting for homecourt advantage. That would put the Orange at 18-13 entering the ACC tournament. That still likely won’t get the ‘Cuse into the field if they enter Selection Sunday without a Top 50 RPI win. They’ll need to take down one or more of the ACC’s best to earn a berth in the bracket.

Florida Gators

Record: 10-9 | RPI: 84 | SOS: 34

Fresh off a Final Four run and boasting what many believed to be one of the most talented rosters in the land, the Gators are a team that could be lurking just below the surface, waiting for a chance to strike. Or we could have just been mistaking them for a rock all along. Florida sits just above .500 with wins against … absolutely no one of consequence. Their most impressive non-conference win might be Yale. Having an Ivy League school on the old resume is great, but it doesn’t open many doors on Selection Sunday. KenPom’s metrics still think more highly of the Gators than most, ranking them 37th, but at some point all that efficiency needs to start equating to wins. Right now, they’re already just six losses away from our historical cut line of 15.

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Projections: Two losses against Kentucky and a potential loss in the SEC tournament would bring them to 12, and those are likely safe bets. KenPom projects the Gators at 16-15 following the regular season, while BPI predicts the same. That’s not going to get it done.

Connecticut Huskies

Record: 11-7 | RPI: 80 | SOS: 68

The defending champs need to find the “next” Kemba Walker/Shabbazz Napier to carry them on a late-season run ASAP. The Huskies have faced some good non-conference opposition this season. Problem is, they haven’t often defeated it. Connecticut is 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 and with Florida faltering, the best win of the year may be Dayton. And with Louisville leaving the American Athletic Conference for the ACC, there aren’t many opportunities remaining for noteworthy W’s — Cincinnati and SMU are the best of the bunch. On the whole, the AAC ranks eighth in conference RPI.

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Projections: If things pan out as KenPom projects, they’ll likely sit right on the cutline with 12 losses going into the conference tournament. A loss in the AAC tourney may put them out of the field, especially if it’s against a middling team. Since 2011, only 8.8 percent of at-large bids have gone to teams with 13 or more losses. All of them hailed from a Power Five conference or the pre-breakup Big East. Where will the AAC fall in that equation?

Of course, they could just make the issue moot by claiming the tournament crown and an automatic bid. The Huskies have been known to do that.

Michigan Wolverines

Record: 11-8 | RPI: 73 | SOS: 26

NBA draft defections stung this team entering the campaign and an injury to Caris LeVert might ultimately sink their tournament chances this season. The Wolverines’ most notable results thus far are losses — to NJIT and Eastern Michigan — which are impossible to overlook. The damage may be done, but the Big Ten is down this season and the Wolverines nearly beat Wisconsin Saturday night. There’s hope. Just not much of it.

Projections: The Wolverines will finish the regular season with 14 losses per KenPom, same as BPI. And a 15th in the conference tournament would more than do them in.

More College Hoops

Quick Take: A boost for Baylor as Florida keeps falling

Turgeon: Terps have exceeded all expectations

Hoyas plan long-distance attack

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