MoxVib

These questions have now reached five pitching coaches, from Steve McCatty to Mike Maddux, Derek Lilliquist to Paul Menhart, then Jim Hickey once he was hired by the Washington Nationals in October: How do Joe Ross, Erick Fedde and Austin Voth take the next step?

For the past half-decade, Ross, Fedde and Voth have existed between making it and almost there. That can be an incredibly thin margin. They have, among the three of them, occupied every inch of it. Ross, 27, has gone from pitching in the playoffs in 2016 to undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017 to spending half of 2019 in the minors before starting Game 5 of the World Series against the Astros. Fedde, also 27, was a first-round draft pick in 2014 and is still trying to stick in the major league rotation. And Voth, 28, beat out Fedde last summer before making a mess of a golden opportunity, finishing with a 6.34 ERA that cast doubt on his future in Washington.

There could be a hundred reasons, maybe more, for a pitcher veering off track. But a simple one that connects Ross, Fedde and Voth is the lack of a reliable change-up. Ross threw his change-up just 7.6 percent of the time in 2019, his most recent season before he opted out of 2020 because of health concerns. Similarly, Fedde’s change-up takes a back seat to his sinker, curveball and a cutter that resembles a slider. Voth, not to be outdone, throws his change-up the least of the three, logging fewer than 40 across 952 total pitches in 2020.

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Each of those statistics is a well-timed cue for Hickey. In his first remarks after becoming their new pitching coach, Hickey stressed his affection for change-ups. He made it the crux of billing himself as a blend of modern and old school. And perhaps he hinted at his approach to tweaking Ross, Fedde or Voth, with the Nationals needing one of them to adequately fill out the rotation. That may sound all too familiar.

“I’m a huge believer in the change-up,” Hickey said in October. “I don’t force anybody to throw change-ups, but if I see something … A lot of guys don’t like the change-up because it’s not a sexy pitch, it’s not a huge swing-and-miss pitch for a lot of guys, but there’s a lot of outs in there, there’s a lot more efficiency in there, and at the end of the year there’s a lot more innings in there as well.”

Hickey half-joked that his core philosophy is for pitchers to “throw strikes, work quick and change speeds.” But the change-up was next on his list, with supporting evidence on the staff he inherits. Stephen Strasburg throws one of the game’s best change-ups. Max Scherzer’s is a big part of his Hall of Fame arsenal. Hickey’s main argument is that change-ups are typically easier to control than sliders or curveballs, making them a better secondary option to steal a strike when behind in the count. He also thinks more change-ups can lead to higher efficiency and longer starts.

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An upfront issue is that Ross, Fedde and Voth don’t throw change-ups to right-handed batters. For Ross, that effectively shaves his mix down to a sinker and slider. He has often discussed refining a third pitch, and that has often meant sharpening his change-up. For Voth, left-handed batters can forget his change-up and key on a four-seam fastball or curve. Fedde, on the other hand, has more tools than Ross and Voth but no clear put-away pitch. And throwing very few change-ups to right-handed batters — just 14 total in 2020, a shortened season — makes him much more predictable with two strikes.

(A quick aside for anyone doing research at home: Fedde constantly confuses the cameras that track and label pitches, leading to a rash of competing data on analytics websites FanGraphs, Statcast and Brooks Baseball. In a text conversation last week, Fedde said Statcast provides the most accurate look at his pitch usage — even if, like all analytics sites, it calls his change-up a “split finger” fastball because of its low spin rate.)

What Ross, Fedde and Voth would gain with a change-up is more deception. It doesn’t have to develop into their most dominant off-speed pitch. It just has to be good enough to put another thought in hitters’ heads, which would elevate the rest of the arsenal. Ross’s change-up has been hit pretty hard in a limited data set. Fedde’s and Voth’s have been serviceable in even fewer instances. But given the numbers and career change-up usage for all three, it’s clear that confidence is low.

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Voth gave the most overt examples of that in 2020. He threw 144 pitches when behind in the count against right-handed hitters; zero were change-ups, according to Brooks Baseball. He threw 136 pitches when ahead against right-handed hitters; two were change-ups.

The totals were not much higher when Voth faced lefties. Avoiding his change-up when ahead could mean Voth isn’t sure about inducing a swing-and-miss with that pitch. Avoiding it when behind shows that he would rather lean even harder on his fastball and curve, eliminating deception, instead of trying to throw his change-up for a needed strike.

“You all of a sudden get yourself into a 2-0 count in a tight spot, [and] it’s pretty difficult to just think you’re going to go ahead and drop this big breaking pitch into the strike zone for a called strike,” Hickey explained. “Whereas a change-up, it’s a lot easier. And also I just like it because it obviously looks like a fastball, it comes out in that same plane as the fastball and hopefully has a little bit less velocity and a little bit more movement. I love it because when you can record those quick outs, it really starts giving you confidence.”

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So their new pitching coach says change-ups are a great way to fight back in counts, an area Ross, Fedde and Voth can improve in. He says the pitch can shorten at-bats, extend outings and help nudge starters toward 200 innings, with only Ross ever having reached half of that. Ross, Fedde and Voth, each stuck in a perpetual hunt for answers, could benefit from tinkering with that logic. It never hurts to try.

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